As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 2% by 31 December and 8% by 30 June 2027.
The 30 June 2027 line moved the most this week: 10% to 8% (−2.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 2% | −0.2 pts | +0.1 pts | $15k |
| 30 June 2027 | 8% | 0.0 pts | −2.5 pts | $0 |
A price of 8% means traders pay about $0.08 for the 30 June 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pIebe | December 31, 2026 · No | $8k | +$81 |
| DFK | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | −$0 |
| Car | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$27 |
| DFK | June 30, 2027 · No | $965 | +$76 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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