As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 6% chance for “Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31”, down from 6% a week ago.
It moved +1.0 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 11% 30 days ago.
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | +1.0 pts | −0.5 pts | $13k |
A price of 6% means traders pay about $0.06 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
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| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| marseillee | No | $40k | +$24k |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | $38k | +$24k |
| M2sx92kljs42 | No | $28k | +$26k |
| eCash | No | $18k | +$3k |
| LJa7io23MCv954j | No | $16k | +$11k |
| wigglew | No | $4k | +$1k |
| brk2016 | No | $3k | +$574 |
| yen4u | No | $3k | +$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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