As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are #3 at 16% and #1 at 7%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
#3 moved the most this week: 20% to 16% (−4.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | 16% | +1.0 pts | −4.0 pts | $2k |
| #1 | 7% | +1.0 pts | +1.5 pts | $7k |
A price of 16% means traders pay about $0.16 for a “#3” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| th2 | #1 · No | $9k | +$486 |
| BTCGambler247 | #1 · No | $2k | +$48 |
| Ethan99999 | #1 · No | $2k | +$158 |
| xcaiox | #1 · No | $2k | +$66 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | #3 · No | $2k | −$52 |
| hgamezoon | #1 · No | $2k | −$4 |
| Investnow | #3 · No | $1k | +$391 |
| StoneMarble | #3 · No | $1k | +$386 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.