As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Anthropic at 90%, Perplexity at 36% and Microsoft at 19%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Microsoft moved the most this week: 44% to 19% (−25.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 90% | +0.1 pts | −1.2 pts | $475 |
| Perplexity | 36% | −35.5 pts | +12.5 pts | $3k |
| Microsoft | 19% | −14.5 pts | −25.5 pts | $3k |
| Amazon | 10% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $122 |
A price of 90% means traders pay about $0.90 for a “Anthropic” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| melonmanm | Anthropic · Yes | $2k | +$1k |
| 0x5ecd…0787 | Amazon · No | $572 | +$48 |
| Viserys | Microsoft · No | $517 | +$211 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.