As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 160-179 at 47%, followed by 180-199 at 46% and 200+ at 6%.
200+ moved the most this week: 87% to 6% (−81.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160-179 | 47% | +25.1 pts | +44.1 pts | $2k |
| 180-199 | 46% | +4.1 pts | +38.8 pts | $3k |
| 200+ | 6% | −28.0 pts | −81.5 pts | $9k |
| 140-159 | 4% | +1.4 pts | +1.6 pts | $621 |
| 120-139 | 1% | −0.2 pts | +0.7 pts | $0 |
A price of 47% means traders pay about $0.47 for a “160-179” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Politics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.