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Finance · Iran

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 at 92%, followed by December at 4%.

No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 moved the most this week: 88% to 92% (+4.0 pts).

Open on the mapRules and result on Polymarket

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OutcomeChance24 hours7 daysTraded, 7 days
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202692%+2.0 pts+4.0 pts$23k
December4%−2.8 pts−2.4 pts$1k

A price of 92% means traders pay about $0.92 for a “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.

Key facts

Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees

Largest public holders

WalletHoldsValueUnrealised P&L
0xa5ef…2966December · No$12k–
TheWindKnowsmyNameNo Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 · Yes$12k+$449
Rebecca-95No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 · Yes$7k+$269
eNakeVetsNo Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 · Yes$7k+$335
Maru.lucky.nala.lenuNo Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 · Yes$1k+$551
0xa5ef…2966No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 · No$970–
haouibaoNo Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 · Yes$550+$59
0x45a2…3c01No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 · No$540−$254

Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.

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