As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Qatar at 5%, Lebanon at 4% and Pakistan at 4%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
No outcome moved more than 2 points over the past week.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar | 5% | +1.2 pts | −0.2 pts | $0 |
| Lebanon | 4% | −1.5 pts | −2.0 pts | $470 |
| Pakistan | 4% | −0.8 pts | −1.1 pts | $0 |
| Turkey | 3% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $0 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3% | 0.0 pts | −1.8 pts | $16k |
A price of 5% means traders pay about $0.05 for a “Qatar” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pakukudolphi | Saudi Arabia · No | $25k | +$2k |
| pIebe | Saudi Arabia · No | $18k | +$1k |
| thoodr | Saudi Arabia · No | $12k | +$212 |
| Yolotrading | Lebanon · No | $5k | +$116 |
| Jet3 | Saudi Arabia · No | $4k | +$189 |
| MEPP | Saudi Arabia · No | $3k | +$97 |
| devin.lawson.77 | Saudi Arabia · No | $2k | +$147 |
| Inchoroi | Lebanon · No | $1k | +$320 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.