As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man at 92%, Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel at 80% and Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts at 57%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel moved the most this week: 73% to 80% (+6.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man | 92% | +0.2 pts | −4.4 pts | $1k |
| Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel | 80% | +7.0 pts | +6.5 pts | $741 |
| Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts | 57% | −4.5 pts | −6.0 pts | $837 |
| Tom Holland as Spider-Man | 40% | −1.0 pts | −5.0 pts | $2k |
| Halle Berry as Storm | 12% | −3.5 pts | −0.5 pts | $696 |
A price of 92% means traders pay about $0.92 for a “Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| agagyu | Halle Berry as Storm · No | $3k | +$183 |
| Stonktrader | Halle Berry as Storm · No | $2k | +$91 |
| Annihilation | Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man · Yes | $626 | +$6 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.