As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is $445K - $458K at 36%, followed by <$445K at 34% and $458K - $471K at 19%.
<$445K moved the most this week: 44% to 34% (−10.6 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $445K - $458K | 36% | +13.5 pts | −3.0 pts | $9k |
| <$445K | 34% | −9.8 pts | −10.6 pts | $7k |
| $458K - $471K | 19% | −9.8 pts | +9.9 pts | $1k |
| $471K - $484K | 8% | +6.1 pts | +5.2 pts | $463 |
| $510K+ | 3% | −1.0 pts | +2.0 pts | $627 |
A price of 36% means traders pay about $0.36 for a “$445K - $458K” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | $510K+ · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | $471K - $484K · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | $458K - $471K · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | <$445K · No | $881 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | $445K - $458K · No | $855 | – |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.