As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 2.5 - 3.0M at 43%, followed by 3.0 - 3.5M at 22% and 2.0 - 2.5M at 9%.
3.5 - 4.0M moved the most this week: 21% to 6% (−14.4 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 - 3.0M | 43% | −1.0 pts | +14.0 pts | $8k |
| 3.0 - 3.5M | 22% | +1.5 pts | −1.0 pts | $4k |
| 2.0 - 2.5M | 9% | −0.5 pts | +0.5 pts | $3k |
| <2.0M | 8% | 0.0 pts | −2.0 pts | $4k |
| 3.5 - 4.0M | 6% | −7.2 pts | −14.4 pts | $4k |
A price of 43% means traders pay about $0.43 for a “2.5 - 3.0M” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| TronOG | <2.0M · No | $8k | +$365 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 3.5 - 4.0M · No | $7k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | <2.0M · No | $7k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2.0 - 2.5M · No | $7k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 3.0 - 3.5M · No | $6k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2.5 - 3.0M · No | $5k | – |
| Hakei. | 3.0 - 3.5M · No | $3k | +$65 |
| Metamah | 2.5 - 3.0M · Yes | $3k | +$1k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.