As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 18% by 31 March 2027 and 6% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 March 2027 line moved the most this week: 41% to 18% (−23.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 March 2027 | 18% | +4.5 pts | −23.5 pts | $4k |
| 31 December 2027 | 6% | −5.0 pts | −17.0 pts | $15k |
A price of 18% means traders pay about $0.18 for the 31 March 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pIebe | December 31 · No | $5k | +$794 |
| pIebe | March 31 · No | $3k | +$443 |
| vinii | December 31 · No | $1k | +$321 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.