As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Simeon Barclay at 35%, followed by Kira Freije at 30% and Marguerite Humeau at 18%.
Simeon Barclay moved the most this week: 18% to 35% (+17.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simeon Barclay | 35% | +1.0 pts | +17.0 pts | $4k |
| Kira Freije | 30% | −0.5 pts | +1.5 pts | $0 |
| Marguerite Humeau | 18% | −0.1 pts | −7.0 pts | $0 |
| Tanoa Sasraku | 17% | +0.5 pts | −4.5 pts | $2k |
A price of 35% means traders pay about $0.35 for a “Simeon Barclay” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Tanoa Sasraku · No | $2k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Marguerite Humeau · No | $2k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Kira Freije · No | $2k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Simeon Barclay · No | $2k | – |
| 0x8314…0b88 | Tanoa Sasraku · No | $757 | +$139 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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