The deadline passed on 8 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 20m+ at 96%, followed by 18m-20m at 5%.
20m+ moved the most this week: 26% to 96% (+69.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20m+ | 96% | +28.7 pts | +69.0 pts | $29k |
| 18m-20m | 5% | −21.8 pts | −21.8 pts | $15k |
A price of 96% means traders pay about $0.96 for a “20m+” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 18m-20m · No | $8k | – |
| 0xf94c…59dc | 20m+ · Yes | $6k | −$83 |
| cat-dog | 20m+ · Yes | $2k | +$1k |
| cigarettes | 18m-20m · No | $897 | +$67 |
| 2100w0e | 20m+ · Yes | $638 | +$147 |
| 0xb028…8686 | 20m+ · Yes | $623 | +$520 |
| Fabulous-Mukluk-Convert | 20m+ · Yes | $573 | +$473 |
| 0x9199…dd2d | 20m+ · Yes | $557 | +$114 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.