As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 3% chance for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30”, down from 6% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 8% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | −0.4 pts | −3.4 pts | $394k |
A price of 3% means traders pay about $0.03 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e…434e | No | $183k | +$6k |
| thoodr | No | $42k | +$912 |
| Alpheo | No | $29k | +$1k |
| 0x9631…89a1 | No | $26k | +$698 |
| timmythewhale | No | $19k | +$470 |
| Ornicar | No | $16k | +$434 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | No | $14k | +$526 |
| sabsabinxz | No | $14k | +$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.