As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 16% by 30 June 2027, 44% by 30 September 2027 and 64% by 31 December 2027.
The 30 September 2027 line moved the most this week: 36% to 44% (+7.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 June 2027 | 16% | −1.0 pts | −6.5 pts | $4k |
| 30 September 2027 | 44% | +8.0 pts | +7.0 pts | $6k |
| 31 December 2027 | 64% | 0.0 pts | +4.0 pts | $12k |
A price of 64% means traders pay about $0.64 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brokie | December 31, 2027 · Yes | $10k | +$243 |
| AllByMyseIf | December 31, 2027 · No | $2k | +$180 |
| 0x8314…0b88 | December 31, 2027 · Yes | $2k | −$152 |
| 0x49f2…d7b4 | December 31, 2027 · No | $2k | −$334 |
| enrico-vasaio | June 30, 2027 · No | $661 | +$50 |
| StarMaster | September 30, 2027 · No | $565 | −$92 |
| AllByMyseIf | September 30, 2027 · Yes | $516 | +$58 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in AI & Tech · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.