As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are John Malkovich at 94%, Ryan Gosling at 52% and Tom Cruise at 51%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
John Malkovich moved the most this week: 87% to 94% (+7.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Malkovich | 94% | −0.5 pts | +7.5 pts | $3k |
| Ryan Gosling | 52% | +7.0 pts | +3.0 pts | $4k |
| Tom Cruise | 51% | −1.5 pts | −2.5 pts | $5k |
| Anthony Ippolito | 48% | 0.0 pts | −5.5 pts | $5k |
| Timothée Chalamet | 14% | 0.0 pts | −4.5 pts | $1k |
A price of 94% means traders pay about $0.94 for a “John Malkovich” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| LamineCruise | Tom Cruise · Yes | $913 | +$83 |
| 20YrsOfBoredom | Timothée Chalamet · No | $902 | +$63 |
| MirAsifAhr | John Malkovich · Yes | $683 | +$29 |
| macrosteaks | Tom Cruise · No | $654 | +$43 |
| macrosteaks | Anthony Ippolito · Yes | $626 | +$52 |
| pengu1n | Tom Cruise · No | $614 | −$55 |
| whispercatalyst | Ryan Gosling · Yes | $542 | +$82 |
| Haradwaith | Tom Cruise · Yes | $538 | −$35 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.