As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Spread -2.5 at 66%, Spread -3.5 at 58% and O/U 42.5 at 52%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Spread -3.5 moved the most this week: 40% to 58% (+18.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread -2.5 | 66% | +9.0 pts | +14.5 pts | $47k |
| Spread -3.5 | 58% | +10.0 pts | +18.0 pts | $285k |
| O/U 42.5 | 52% | +2.5 pts | −14.0 pts | $90k |
| Spread -10.5 | 35% | +11.5 pts | +5.0 pts | $80k |
| Winner | 28% | −10.0 pts | −13.0 pts | $626k |
A price of 66% means traders pay about $0.66 for a “Spread -2.5” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 999585 | Winner · No | $194k | +$11k |
| 0xbc43…96d3 | Winner · No | $82k | +$8k |
| milkteaboba | Winner · No | $73k | +$8k |
| Kch-Temp | Spread -3.5 · Yes | $64k | +$9k |
| AnonymousUsername | Winner · Yes | $29k | −$8k |
| Siddhartha1 | Spread -3.5 · Yes | $27k | +$4k |
| 0xbc43…96d3 | Spread -10.5 · Yes | $24k | +$7k |
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | Spread -3.5 · Yes | $19k | +$740 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.