The favourite on Polymarket is Yes at 68%, followed by Spread -3.5 at 54% and Spread -4.5 at 50%.
Spread -3.5 moved the most this week: 30% to 20% (−10.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 68% | −2.0 pts | −0.5 pts | $21k |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% | −2.0 pts | +4.5 pts | $2k |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% | −3.5 pts | −3.0 pts | $2k |
| Spread -5.5 | 48% | −2.0 pts | +6.0 pts | $21k |
| Spread -3.5 | 20% | +1.0 pts | −10.0 pts | $56k |
A price of 20% means traders pay $0.20 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3dfb…abaf | Spread -5.5 · Yes | $8k | −$255 |
| mooseborzoi | Spread -3.5 · Yes | $7k | +$723 |
| mooseborzoi | Yes · No | $6k | −$3k |
| AnonymousUsername | Yes · Yes | $4k | −$88 |
| HomeRunHazard | Spread -5.5 · No | $4k | +$334 |
| darkumbreon88 | Yes · Yes | $3k | −$71 |
| AvocadosFromMexico | Spread -5.5 · No | $3k | +$259 |
| 0xbc43…96d3 | Spread -3.5 · No | $2k | +$7k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.