As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 6% by 30 November and 14% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 42% to 14% (−28.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 6% | −2.5 pts | −5.5 pts | $4k |
| 31 December 2027 | 14% | −1.0 pts | −28.0 pts | $252 |
A price of 14% means traders pay about $0.14 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| dedidanc | December 31 · No | $7k | +$643 |
| nonkenny90 | November 30 · No | $2k | +$113 |
| hwey346ed | November 30 · No | $2k | +$262 |
| dedidanc | November 30 · No | $2k | +$505 |
| hwey346ed | December 31 · No | $1k | +$120 |
| xiaojiren | November 30 · No | $1k | +$55 |
| notssf3 | December 31 · Yes | $994 | −$349 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | November 30 · No | $710 | +$185 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.