As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is No release by November 30 at 53%, followed by November 12 at 15% and November 9 at 5%.
No release by November 30 moved the most this week: 36% to 53% (+17.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No release by November 30 | 53% | +14.5 pts | +17.5 pts | $7k |
| November 12 | 15% | −6.7 pts | +10.9 pts | $135 |
| November 9 | 5% | +0.1 pts | +4.6 pts | $0 |
| November 10 | 4% | +0.2 pts | −0.1 pts | $0 |
| November 11 | 4% | +0.3 pts | +3.3 pts | $0 |
A price of 53% means traders pay about $0.53 for a “No release by November 30” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
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