As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 10% by 9 November, 10% by 11 November, 86% by 20 November and 94% by 30 November.
The 9 November 2026 line moved the most this week: 49% to 10% (−38.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 November 2026 | 10% | −30.5 pts | −38.5 pts | $1k |
| 11 November 2026 | 10% | −65.0 pts | −38.5 pts | $3k |
| 13 November 2026 | 14% | −62.0 pts | −34.5 pts | $1k |
| 20 November 2026 | 86% | +2.0 pts | +8.5 pts | $2k |
| 30 November 2026 | 94% | +0.8 pts | −0.7 pts | $519 |
A price of 94% means traders pay about $0.94 for the 30 November 2026 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| KimchiCapital | November 20 · Yes | $559 | +$47 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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