As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Winner at 78%, Spread -7.5 at 57% and Spread -8.5 at 54%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Spread -7.5 moved the most this week: 43% to 57% (+14.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 78% | +1.0 pts | +10.5 pts | $212k |
| Spread -7.5 | 57% | +14.5 pts | +14.5 pts | $7k |
| Spread -8.5 | 54% | +10.0 pts | +10.0 pts | $5k |
| O/U 238.5 | 50% | +0.5 pts | +0.5 pts | $21k |
| Spread -9.5 | 48% | +2.5 pts | +2.5 pts | $56k |
A price of 78% means traders pay about $0.78 for a “Winner” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| nigiri99 | Winner · Yes | $53k | −$611 |
| Zzzz87 | Winner · Yes | $35k | −$158 |
| drainedandpoor | Winner · No | $23k | −$54 |
| drainedandpoor | Spread -9.5 · No | $18k | −$361 |
| HomeRunHazard | Spread -9.5 · Yes | $11k | +$4 |
| 0x3da8…80c3 | Winner · Yes | $10k | −$167 |
| beaverfever0 | Winner · Yes | $9k | −$89 |
| MadridTime | Spread -9.5 · Yes | $6k | +$10 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.