As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Spread -8.5 at 46%, Spread -9.5 at 42% and Spread -10.5 at 38%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Spread -11.5 moved the most this week: 50% to 38% (−12.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread -8.5 | 46% | −3.5 pts | −3.5 pts | $72k |
| Spread -9.5 | 42% | −7.5 pts | −7.5 pts | $49k |
| Spread -10.5 | 38% | −11.5 pts | −11.5 pts | $29k |
| Spread -11.5 | 38% | −12.5 pts | −12.5 pts | $20k |
| Winner | 26% | +1.0 pts | −4.5 pts | $38k |
A price of 46% means traders pay about $0.46 for a “Spread -8.5” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| nigiri99 | Spread -9.5 · No | $23k | +$2k |
| nigiri99 | Spread -8.5 · No | $15k | +$1k |
| nigiri99 | Spread -10.5 · No | $13k | +$948 |
| nigiri99 | Spread -11.5 · No | $11k | +$318 |
| monkeymashingkeyboard | Spread -9.5 · Yes | $8k | −$1k |
| Multicoloured-Serf | Spread -8.5 · Yes | $7k | −$72 |
| beaverfever0 | Winner · No | $5k | −$364 |
| nehcnehc | Spread -8.5 · Yes | $5k | −$262 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.