As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31”, down from 6% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 6% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 0.0 pts | −2.0 pts | $211k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| stupid22 | No | $204k | +$4k |
| hymolu | No | $59k | +$2k |
| JJo | No | $51k | +$269 |
| MrNoItAll | No | $40k | +$1k |
| thoodr | No | $38k | +$404 |
| eCash | No | $25k | +$819 |
| laidaodao | No | $24k | +$385 |
| 0xe665…7d42 | No | $22k | +$350 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.