As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is <5 at 88%, followed by 5-9 at 12% and 10-14 at 1%.
<5 moved the most this week: 72% to 88% (+15.1 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 88% | +13.8 pts | +15.1 pts | $6k |
| 5-9 | 12% | −9.9 pts | −8.6 pts | $2k |
| 10-14 | 1% | −2.4 pts | −5.7 pts | $808 |
A price of 88% means traders pay about $0.88 for a “<5” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.