As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 3% chance for “Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027”, down from 8% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 8% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | −0.2 pts | −4.5 pts | $55k |
A price of 3% means traders pay about $0.03 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEPP | No | $17k | +$2k |
| stupid22 | No | $13k | +$126 |
| aff3 | No | $11k | +$448 |
| RolandDrump | No | $8k | +$837 |
| ANGGGuess | No | $8k | +$850 |
| whig | No | $6k | +$2k |
| e88888 | No | $5k | +$1k |
| 18in36out | No | $5k | −$1 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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