As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 10% by 31 March 2027, 18% by 30 June 2027, 2% by 31 December 2027 and 30% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 38% to 30% (−8.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 March 2027 | 10% | 0.0 pts | −5.0 pts | $0 |
| 30 June 2027 | 18% | +0.5 pts | −4.0 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2027 | 2% | 0.0 pts | −2.4 pts | $888 |
| 31 December 2027 | 30% | −1.0 pts | −8.0 pts | $48k |
A price of 30% means traders pay about $0.30 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| denizz | December 31 · No | $12k | +$2k |
| hostar | December 31, 2027 · No | $8k | +$793 |
| nonejy | December 31, 2027 · No | $8k | +$828 |
| MEPP | December 31 · No | $8k | +$1k |
| alwaysOn | December 31 · No | $7k | +$643 |
| Mithrandiric | December 31 · No | $5k | +$843 |
| Kevindoto | December 31 · No | $5k | +$420 |
| tangdai | December 31, 2027 · Yes | $5k | −$1k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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