As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 4% by 31 October, 19% by 30 November and 30% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 24% to 30% (+5.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 October 2026 | 4% | 0.0 pts | −1.4 pts | $0 |
| 30 November 2026 | 19% | −2.0 pts | −3.0 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2027 | 30% | +2.0 pts | +5.0 pts | $0 |
A price of 30% means traders pay about $0.30 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull | October 31 · No | $2k | +$200 |
| LJa7io23MCv954j | December 31 · No | $1k | +$379 |
| LJa7io23MCv954j | November 30 · No | $951 | +$18 |
| 0x36da…907b | October 31 · No | $558 | +$40 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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