As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 12% by 7 November, 88% by 8 November, 76% by 15 November and 82% by 26 November.
The 7 November 2026 line moved the most this week: 75% to 12% (−63.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 November 2026 | 12% | −31.5 pts | −63.5 pts | $1k |
| 8 November 2026 | 88% | +10.8 pts | +16.3 pts | $6k |
| 9 November 2026 | 76% | +30.0 pts | +4.5 pts | $3k |
| 15 November 2026 | 76% | −9.5 pts | +4.0 pts | $1k |
| 26 November 2026 | 82% | +7.0 pts | +31.0 pts | $943 |
A price of 88% means traders pay about $0.88 for the 8 November 2026 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hakei. | November 9 · Yes | $543 | −$41 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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