As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 9% chance for “Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31”, down from 12% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 18% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 0.0 pts | −2.5 pts | $10k |
A price of 9% means traders pay about $0.09 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udonsan | No | $20k | +$5k |
| Elsewhere-ww | No | $16k | +$5k |
| 0x6bab…0fe5 | No | $14k | +$6k |
| denizz | No | $11k | +$5k |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | $7k | +$4k |
| KissingGolden | No | $2k | +$1k |
| Outsid3rTrading | No | $2k | +$992 |
| Giannis2026 | No | $1k | +$573 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.