As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “Houthis seize an oil tanker by November 30, 2026”, down from 34% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 50% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 0.0 pts | −30.2 pts | $0 |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
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