As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 5% by 30 November and 14% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 17% to 14% (−3.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 5% | 0.0 pts | −2.7 pts | $15k |
| 31 December 2027 | 14% | 0.0 pts | −3.5 pts | $18k |
A price of 14% means traders pay about $0.14 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| GammaSqueeze1234 | December 31 · No | $3k | +$460 |
| GOLADS96 | December 31 · No | $3k | +$541 |
| Everestpredictions | November 30 · No | $3k | +$133 |
| endangered.species | November 30 · No | $3k | +$196 |
| 0xd8d5…8935 | December 31 · No | $3k | +$528 |
| chickendinner69 | December 31 · No | $3k | +$462 |
| RogerFed | December 31 · No | $3k | +$359 |
| Inchoroi | December 31 · No | $2k | +$263 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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