As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 11°C at 50%, followed by 10°C at 38% and 12°C at 7%.
11°C moved the most this week: 24% to 50% (+25.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11°C | 50% | +9.0 pts | +25.5 pts | $3k |
| 10°C | 38% | −11.0 pts | −11.0 pts | $4k |
| 12°C | 7% | +1.5 pts | +2.5 pts | $962 |
| 9°C | 6% | −1.5 pts | −14.0 pts | $1k |
| 8°C | 1% | 0.0 pts | −1.8 pts | $1k |
A price of 50% means traders pay about $0.50 for a “11°C” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 8°C · No | $829 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 9°C · No | $793 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 12°C · No | $780 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 10°C · No | $520 | – |
| indiaforever | 8°C · No | $506 | −$4 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.