As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 98% chance for “GTA VI released by November 30”, up from 97% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 95% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | −0.1 pts | +1.9 pts | $14k |
A price of 98% means traders pay about $0.98 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xef97…ab2c | Yes | $7k | +$241 |
| Jjw | Yes | $6k | +$209 |
| thoodr | Yes | $5k | +$148 |
| 0xdafd…5ffb | Yes | $5k | +$83 |
| AlexiosV | Yes | $5k | +$128 |
| SomerandomD | Yes | $3k | +$48 |
| QMG-CORE | Yes | $2k | +$104 |
| 0xc34a…6007 | Yes | $1k | +$81 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.