As of 8 November 2026, the Polymarket prices are 60%+ at 96%, 65%+ at 90% and 70%+ at 21%.
70%+ moved the most this week: 24% to 21% (−2.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%+ | 99% | −0.1 pts | +2.0 pts | $3k |
| 55%+ | 97% | +0.1 pts | −1.7 pts | $0 |
| 60%+ | 96% | +0.2 pts | −0.4 pts | $0 |
| 65%+ | 90% | 0.0 pts | +2.0 pts | $15k |
| 70%+ | 21% | −1.5 pts | −2.5 pts | $1k |
A price of 99% means traders pay about $0.99 for a “50%+” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| iutwpfal | 65%+ · Yes | $5k | +$323 |
| recallcp | 65%+ · Yes | $2k | +$177 |
| iutwpfal | 50%+ · Yes | $2k | +$33 |
| vinii | 55%+ · Yes | $2k | +$124 |
| 0x5ecd…0787 | 60%+ · Yes | $968 | +$130 |
| The-Joker | 65%+ · Yes | $755 | −$3 |
| troim | 65%+ · Yes | $575 | +$42 |
| iutwpfal | 60%+ · Yes | $541 | +$28 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.