As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 9% chance for “Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31”, down from 10% a week ago.
It moved +1.5 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 15% 30 days ago.
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | +1.5 pts | −0.5 pts | $12k |
A price of 9% means traders pay about $0.09 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| efghvcdbjkpqwo | No | $14k | +$3k |
| M2sx92kljs42 | No | $7k | +$4k |
| marseillee | No | $5k | +$2k |
| mountmckinley | No | $3k | +$707 |
| denizz | Yes | $2k | −$6k |
| selters | No | $1k | +$188 |
| Barcide | No | $1k | +$319 |
| scoutwing | No | $1k | +$41 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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