As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by November 30, 2026”, up from 3% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 50% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | +0.1 pts | +0.7 pts | $5k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| eCash | No | $1k | +$121 |
| VortexTrading | No | $938 | −$9 |
| JokerTheClown | No | $510 | −$3 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.