As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 400m+ at 56%, followed by 360m-400m at 24% and 300m-340m at 11%.
400m+ moved the most this week: 26% to 56% (+30.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 400m+ | 56% | +1.0 pts | +30.0 pts | $18k |
| 360m-400m | 24% | −3.0 pts | −17.0 pts | $14k |
| 300m-340m | 11% | 0.0 pts | +1.5 pts | $5k |
| 340m-360m | 8% | +0.5 pts | −11.5 pts | $6k |
| 260m-300m | 2% | −0.6 pts | −4.5 pts | $5k |
A price of 56% means traders pay about $0.56 for a “400m+” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| New.Jeans | 400m+ · Yes | $6k | +$385 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 260m-300m · No | $4k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 340m-360m · No | $3k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 300m-340m · No | $3k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 360m-400m · No | $3k | – |
| 17735977 | 400m+ · No | $2k | −$120 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 400m+ · No | $2k | – |
| cat-dog | 400m+ · No | $870 | −$150 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.