As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 7% by 30 November and 70% by 31 December.
The 30 November 2026 line moved the most this week: 16% to 7% (−8.3 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 7% | −0.5 pts | −8.3 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2026 | 70% | −4.0 pts | −4.6 pts | $9k |
A price of 70% means traders pay about $0.70 for the 31 December 2026 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| RisingFreedom | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $18k | −$491 |
| 0xf9b1…71e6 | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $4k | −$1k |
| twe2nty | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | −$946 |
| Egozic86 | December 31, 2026 · No | $2k | −$174 |
| Choroo | December 31, 2026 · No | $2k | +$645 |
| vacoolaaa | November 30, 2026 · No | $1k | +$243 |
| 0xdbcc…fbc2 | December 31, 2026 · No | $966 | +$397 |
| hitjnn214 | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $890 | −$136 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Crypto · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.