The favourite on Polymarket is March 31, 2027 at 98%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 94% and November 30, 2026 at 75%.
November 15, 2026 moved the most this week: 81% to 31% (−49.9 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 98% | −0.2 pts | −0.8 pts | $3k |
| December 31, 2026 | 94% | −0.4 pts | −3.6 pts | $26k |
| November 30, 2026 | 75% | −14.5 pts | −16.4 pts | $60k |
| November 15, 2026 | 31% | −13.6 pts | −49.9 pts | $135k |
A price of 31% means traders pay $0.31 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| tphhh | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $24k | −$1k |
| yen4u | December 31, 2026 · No | $14k | −$12k |
| worldchamp | December 31, 2026 · No | $13k | −$11k |
| Choroo | December 31, 2026 · No | $12k | −$9k |
| Dokkl | November 30, 2026 · Yes | $9k | −$163 |
| jetLLLLLLLL | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $7k | +$831 |
| emffg | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $7k | +$801 |
| Choroo | November 30, 2026 · No | $6k | −$4k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.