As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 78% by 8 November, 83% by 9 November, 77% by 11 November and 73% by 22 November.
The 11 November 2026 line moved the most this week: 90% to 77% (−13.3 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 November 2026 | 78% | +1.0 pts | −7.0 pts | $371 |
| 9 November 2026 | 83% | −6.0 pts | −9.0 pts | $1k |
| 10 November 2026 | 85% | −8.2 pts | +0.8 pts | $909 |
| 11 November 2026 | 77% | −17.7 pts | −13.3 pts | $377 |
| 22 November 2026 | 73% | −18.5 pts | −9.0 pts | $331 |
A price of 85% means traders pay about $0.85 for the 10 November 2026 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
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