As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 6% by 31 December, 27% by 30 June 2027 and 31% by 30 September 2027.
The 30 June 2027 line moved the most this week: 32% to 27% (−4.6 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 6% | 0.0 pts | −3.0 pts | $4k |
| 30 June 2027 | 27% | −2.0 pts | −4.6 pts | $0 |
| 30 September 2027 | 31% | −1.2 pts | −0.8 pts | $0 |
A price of 31% means traders pay about $0.31 for the 30 September 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkgetsu | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | +$275 |
| mainantagonist | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$377 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$163 |
| Choroo | December 31, 2026 · No | $2k | +$2k |
| Choroo | June 30, 2027 · No | $2k | +$2k |
| paghool | December 31, 2026 · No | $2k | +$1k |
| twe2nty | December 31, 2026 · No | $2k | +$1k |
| Maxima | June 30, 2027 · No | $2k | +$899 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.