As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends”, down from 4% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 6% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | −0.2 pts | −0.9 pts | $10k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| elmcap2 | No | $50k | +$3k |
| thoodr | No | $35k | +$1k |
| WongKimArk | No | $29k | +$10k |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | $10k | +$3k |
| HerrieDavis | No | $8k | +$4k |
| massive-pp | No | $8k | +$6k |
| 0x8f69…2923 | No | $8k | +$4k |
| zthunderfury | No | $7k | +$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.