The favourite on Polymarket is Raymond Smith Jr. (D) at 80%, followed by Greg Murphy (R) at 20%.
Raymond Smith Jr. (D) moved the most this week: 36% to 80% (+44.2 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond Smith Jr. (D) | 80% | +1.5 pts | +44.2 pts | $465k |
| Greg Murphy (R) | 20% | −1.4 pts | −43.2 pts | $595k |
A price of 20% means traders pay $0.20 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Raymond Smith Jr. (D) · No | $79k | −$79k |
| aenews2 | Raymond Smith Jr. (D) · Yes | $32k | +$16k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Greg Murphy (R) · No | $20k | −$20k |
| RememberAmalek | Raymond Smith Jr. (D) · No | $12k | −$5k |
| Railcool | Raymond Smith Jr. (D) · Yes | $10k | +$5k |
| aenews2 | Greg Murphy (R) · No | $9k | +$8k |
| Melody626 | Greg Murphy (R) · Yes | $9k | −$20k |
| cigarettes | Raymond Smith Jr. (D) · No | $8k | −$6k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.