As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 82% by 31 December, 94% by 30 June 2027 and 90% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 98% to 90% (−7.3 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 82% | +1.5 pts | +2.0 pts | $4k |
| 30 June 2027 | 94% | +2.2 pts | −2.6 pts | $26 |
| 31 December 2027 | 90% | +26.9 pts | −7.3 pts | $115 |
A price of 94% means traders pay about $0.94 for the 30 June 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0a1b…f36a | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $4k | −$163 |
| Mr-Krabs | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $3k | −$29 |
| niqqaping | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $1k | +$123 |
| 0x5736…fb9a | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $1k | −$77 |
| hooksta | December 31, 2026 · No | $1k | +$220 |
| Choroo | December 31, 2026 · No | $1k | −$47 |
| Ronty | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $1k | +$259 |
| 0x91c3…409f | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $1k | +$41 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.