As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 16% by 31 December, 70% by 30 September 2027 and 75% by 31 December 2027.
The 30 September 2027 line moved the most this week: 75% to 70% (−5.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 16% | +6.0 pts | +1.0 pts | $2k |
| 30 September 2027 | 70% | 0.0 pts | −5.0 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2027 | 75% | −0.4 pts | +2.0 pts | $760 |
A price of 75% means traders pay about $0.75 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| bearishoncrypto | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$613 |
| logicc | December 31, 2026 · No | $2k | +$477 |
| goodar | December 31, 2027 · Yes | $2k | −$224 |
| MaxEnt | December 31, 2026 · No | $1k | +$269 |
| 83offwrf | December 31, 2026 · No | $1k | +$15 |
| 0xf9c2…8ae9 | December 31, 2026 · No | $950 | +$150 |
| gydmasg | December 31, 2026 · No | $936 | +$108 |
| paghool | December 31, 2026 · No | $912 | +$515 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.