As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 2% by 31 December, 16% by 30 June 2027 and 36% by 31 December 2027.
The 30 June 2027 line moved the most this week: 20% to 16% (−4.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 2% | −0.1 pts | −1.6 pts | $5k |
| 30 June 2027 | 16% | +2.0 pts | −4.0 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2027 | 36% | −0.5 pts | −3.5 pts | $224 |
A price of 36% means traders pay about $0.36 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7860…f985 | December 31, 2026 · No | $25k | +$983 |
| elmcap2 | December 31, 2026 · No | $8k | +$284 |
| churna | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | +$870 |
| MaxEnt | December 31, 2027 · No | $4k | +$2k |
| logicc | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$2k |
| MaxEnt | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$173 |
| cryptoincome | December 31, 2026 · No | $2k | +$496 |
| dixiedox | December 31, 2026 · No | $2k | +$624 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Crypto · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.