As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Elon Musk at 10%, Steve Bannon at 7% and Himself at 6%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Elon Musk moved the most this week: 4% to 10% (+6.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 10% | −0.1 pts | +6.0 pts | $13k |
| Steve Bannon | 7% | +2.5 pts | +0.2 pts | $1k |
| Himself | 6% | −0.2 pts | +2.5 pts | $12k |
| Joe Exotic | 3% | −0.5 pts | −4.2 pts | $422 |
| Do Kwon | 1% | −0.1 pts | −2.1 pts | $2k |
A price of 10% means traders pay about $0.10 for a “Elon Musk” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| elmcap2 | Himself · No | $4k | +$45 |
| allenzzz | Do Kwon · No | $2k | +$40 |
| QMG-CORE | Elon Musk · No | $2k | −$45 |
| macrosteaks | Elon Musk · No | $2k | +$30 |
| VegemiteLover | Do Kwon · No | $2k | +$152 |
| aviato | Himself · No | $2k | +$2 |
| QMG-CORE | Himself · No | $1k | −$20 |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Himself · No | $1k | −$5 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.