The deadline passed on 4 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Alaska at 99%, Iowa at 98% and Maine at 6%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Maine moved the most this week: 70% to 6% (−63.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 99% | −0.3 pts | +21.7 pts | $4k |
| Iowa | 98% | −1.5 pts | +26.8 pts | $3k |
| Maine | 6% | 0.0 pts | −63.5 pts | $2k |
| Kansas | 5% | 0.0 pts | −55.4 pts | $8k |
| Montana | 1% | +0.7 pts | −51.6 pts | $340 |
A price of 99% means traders pay about $0.99 for a “Alaska” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Kansas · No | $3k | +$1k |
| sciuboi | Iowa · Yes | $1k | +$259 |
| 50degrees | Iowa · Yes | $755 | +$196 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Iowa · Yes | $730 | +$419 |
| 50degrees | Alaska · Yes | $607 | +$293 |
| sciuboi | Alaska · Yes | $532 | +$151 |
| lava-lava | Maine · No | $519 | +$347 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.