The deadline passed on 4 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Michael Baumgartner (R) at 98%, followed by Carmela Conroy (D) at 1%.
Carmela Conroy (D) moved the most this week: 16% to 1% (−14.6 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner (R) | 98% | −0.1 pts | +14.5 pts | $21k |
| Carmela Conroy (D) | 1% | −0.2 pts | −14.6 pts | $14k |
A price of 98% means traders pay about $0.98 for a “Michael Baumgartner (R)” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Carmela Conroy (D) · No | $11k | – |
| Gaditima | Michael Baumgartner (R) · Yes | $4k | +$488 |
| macrosteaks | Michael Baumgartner (R) · Yes | $3k | +$594 |
| macrosteaks | Carmela Conroy (D) · No | $2k | +$356 |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Michael Baumgartner (R) · Yes | $1k | +$174 |
| seal7 | Michael Baumgartner (R) · Yes | $1k | +$243 |
| 0xe41a…29bd | Michael Baumgartner (R) · Yes | $1k | +$209 |
| Votei14Voude22 | Michael Baumgartner (R) · Yes | $963 | +$20 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.